Friday, September 16, 2011

Euro Zone Crisis: Europe's Impossible Choice: The Greek Exit Paradox - CNBC

During the 1980s and 1990s, Greece benefitted from joining the European community and taking transfer funds from Brussels to develop its economy. In the early part of the 2000s, having joined the euro, they gained a further advantage and inflow of relatively cheap funds.

"Now that era is over, it's doubtful even without any debt they could maintain that position. With the government debt load they have, it's flat out impossible," Zeihan said. "The only way that they could continue to remain in the euro zone is if the Germans directly or indirectly subsidize them forever."

"If the Germans do that, they will have to do it for Portugal and for Spain and for Ireland and for Italy, and let's be perfectly honest here, for France. Unless the Germans are willing to come to that conclusion, Greece has got to go," he added.

"If you want the euro zone to survive, you have to find a way to force the vast majority, if not all, the states that are participating in it, to be fiscally responsible according to German rules," Zeihan said. "That is something that is physically impossible for Greece to do. If you take steps to keep Greece in the union, you actively encourage everyone else to act like Greece."


Euro Zone Crisis: Europe's Impossible Choice: The Greek Exit Paradox - CNBC

What does a post-Euro world look like? For Greece, it seems grim. Hard to predict how the Greeks will react to an immediate 50% decrease in their standard of living. Won't be pretty.

For the Germans, sudden loss of world-stage influence and prestige as the Euro-zone breaks up. German aspirations have had the European Union as their outlet for more than three decades. Where will that pressure manifest itself?

For the Chinese? Seems they'll step int0 the vacuum created by the disintegration of the Euro-zone/European Union. I can't imagine they'll help prop up the PIGS pre-breakup. But, post-breakup there will be banks aplenty in the PIGS that can be had for a fraction of their 'value' now.

Maybe it is a good thing Sandander's color is already red. They won't have to change logos when Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. is the biggest shareholder...

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