Wednesday, December 28, 2011
China and Japan agree currency push - FT.com
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
I'm a Denier.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Bitcoin - P2P digital currency
Saturday, November 19, 2011
CDO's for Dummies
Gordon was the proprietor of a bar in Glasgow. He realises that virtually all of his customers are unemployed alcoholics and as such can no longer afford to patronise his bar.
To solve this problem, he comes up with a new marketing plan that allows his customers to drink now, but pay later. Gordon keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).
Word gets around about Gordon's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into his bar. Soon he has the largest sales volume for any bar in Glasgow.
By providing his customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Gordon gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, he substantially increases his prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Gordon's gross sales volume increases massively.
A young and dynamic president at the local bank recognises that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Gordon's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern because he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral!
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These 'securities' are then bundled and traded on international securities markets. Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as "AAA Secured Bonds" really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb - and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.
One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Gordon's bar. He so informs Gordon.
Gordon then demands payment from his alcoholic patrons. But, being unemployed alcoholics - they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Gordon cannot fulfil his loan obligations he is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Gordon's 11 employees lose their jobs. Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%.
The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. The suppliers of Gordon's bar had granted him generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off his bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.
His wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, his beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.
Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion pound no-strings attached cash infusion from the government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never even been in Gordon's bar.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
The REAL problem is tax evasion
He will target widespread tax evasion, sub-standard education and training and Italy's creaking welfare system as well as reforming the labor market in what are expected to be painful and unpopular austerity measures to end a crisis that has put the euro zone's third largest economy at the center of its expanding debt crisis.
...
In another shot at a major problem with the Italian economy, Monti said the use of cash should be reduced to cut an underground economy that accounts for nearly 20 percent of GDP.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Lang Xianping: China's Economic Depression Has Begun - YouTube
Monday, November 14, 2011
Europe against the people? | The Economist
This raises a sense of double standards: one kind of democracy for creditors, another for debtors. Everybody must understand the constraints on Mrs Merkel. But Mr Papandreou commits a “breach of trust” if he calls a referendum.
Greece is a mess. No doubt. But I found it particularly puzzling when European leaders gasped when the Greek PM said he would hold a referendum. Has this been bothering anyone else?
EUROPE has claimed the scalps of two leaders in almost as many days. First George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, promised to resign, and then Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi did the same. Both leaders have been in trouble for some time, but the immediate cause of their downfall is plain: the ultimatum they received from euro-zone leaders at the G20 summit in Cannes to reform their economies—or else.
Mr Papandreou was instructed to approve the last European bail-out deal or risk losing his loans and being ejected from the euro. He scrapped his call for a referendum, and agreed on November 6th to make way for a government of national unity. With Italy’s bond yields reaching danger levels, Mr Berlusconi was told he lacked credibility and was made to “invite” the IMF to supervise his reforms. On November 8th, though, Mr Berlusconi lost his majority in parliament, and agreed to step down once the reforms are passed.
- A case of the sniffles
- Tomorrow and tomorrow
- Broadcasting to the Balkans
- The belt-tightener-in-chief
- How to spend it
- Conflict on ice
- »Europe against the people?
Related topics
Two taboos were broken in Cannes. It was the first time euro-zone leaders accepted that a member could default and leave the euro. (And once the unthinkable is possible, why stop at Greece?) It was also the first time leaders intruded so deliberately into the internal politics of other countries.
True, the European Union has long influenced national politics. Think of how Conservative divisions over Europe contributed to the resignation of Britain’s Margaret Thatcher in 1990, or how new members have transformed themselves to join the EU, or how Italy reformed its public finances to qualify for the euro in 1999. In the past year the crisis has brought down the prime ministers of Ireland and Portugal after they needed to be bailed out.
Yet something has changed. Europeans see themselves as a family; they have rows, but nobody questions a member’s right to be part of the clan. But at Cannes euro-zone leaders made plain that family members could be forsaken, even disinherited. Some see this as an assault on national democracies by the European elite, be it unelected or self-appointed (as in the case of the German-French duo of “Merkozy”, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy). Much has been written about the subjugation of Greece, the cradle of democracy, under a second German occupation.
And much of it is nonsense. Italy and Greece chose freely to join the euro, and every club has norms of behaviour. In a monetary union, irresponsibility by one member endangers the well-being of others. If Italy and Greece had not been so over-indebted and sclerotic, they would not be in such trouble today. Countries that extend financial help have a right to impose conditions to ensure that their loans are repaid. The alternative to euro-zone diktat is being abandoned to the market. And if a response is needed, it will inevitably be led by Germany and France.
Yet there is something to the critics’ charges. For many countries, such as Spain, the EU has been an anchor of democracy. But as the crisis persists, austerity drags on and the euro zone integrates to save itself, the legitimacy of the enterprise will suffer. The pain would be more acceptable if the creditors acted as if they believed they faced an existential threat. But rather than commit their full resources to the crisis, they are seeking to limit their liability. This raises a sense of double standards: one kind of democracy for creditors, another for debtors. Everybody must understand the constraints on Mrs Merkel. But Mr Papandreou commits a “breach of trust” if he calls a referendum.
The debtors, moreover, bear the cost of the creditors’ mistakes. In Greece the IMF (rightly) wanted the adjustment programme to focus more on growth-promoting structural reforms; the Europeans prioritised deficit-reduction. A deeper-than-forecast recession means Greece must chase ever-receding fiscal targets with ever more austerity. Its first bail-out gave it three-year loans at punitive interest rates, with no debt reduction. The latest rescue offers Greece cheap rates for up to 30 years, with a 50% haircut on private bondholders. At least one of these options was wrong, and neither may be enough to save Greece. Germany belatedly accepted the need for the rescue fund to be larger and more flexible. Had all this been done sooner, the crisis might have been contained more easily, and at lower cost.
First fight the fire
Right now the emphasis needs to be on firefighting. Italy is burning, and the rest of the euro area could be consumed with it. Decisions cannot be hostage to the vicissitudes of 17 national parliaments. And Germany restraining the European Central Bank is like insisting that water buckets are used instead of fire engines.
In the longer term, though, the euro zone will need a new fire code. The EU’s treaties are likely to be reopened, again. Euro members will have to abide by stricter fiscal rules and accept intrusive inspection by outsiders. The loss of sovereignty would be more acceptable to debtors if the creditors were to accept the need, eventually, to issue joint Eurobonds.
Independent institutions are needed to make the system work. Most would prefer the unelected European Commission over an intergovernmental body dominated by Merkozy. The commission, moreover, would act as a vital link between the 17 euro “ins” and the ten non-euro “outs”, preventing the sort of two-speed Europe now openly advocated by France. More Europe should not mean more Sarkozy and less single market.
Saving the euro requires more pain for some, more generosity from others and fundamental change for all. Is it worth it? Sooner or later, citizens must be asked. Without their support, no reform can last. And a real choice must include the option of leaving the euro. Now that this taboo has been breached, the euro zone should start thinking about how best to arrange the departure of those that cannot, or will not, live by Germanic rules.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Occupy Wall Street = Enactment of Orwell's Animal Farm
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
The Greek referendum: Voting away your debts | The Economist
Monday, October 31, 2011
All regulations are taxes
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Cheer-up, America! The Case for American Optimism
Friday, October 21, 2011
Ron Paul: Blame the Fed for the Financial Crisis - WSJ.com
By RON PAUL
To know what is wrong with the Federal Reserve, one must first understand the nature of money. Money is like any other good in our economy that emerges from the market to satisfy the needs and wants of consumers. Its particular usefulness is that it helps facilitate indirect exchange, making it easier for us to buy and sell goods because there is a common way of measuring their value. Money is not a government phenomenon, and it need not and should not be managed by government. When central banks like the Fed manage money they are engaging in price fixing, which leads not to prosperity but to disaster.
The Federal Reserve has caused every single boom and bust that has occurred in this country since the bank's creation in 1913. It pumps new money into the financial system to lower interest rates and spur the economy. Adding new money increases the supply of money, making the price of money over time—the interest rate—lower than the market would make it. These lower interest rates affect the allocation of resources, causing capital to be malinvested throughout the economy. So certain projects and ventures that appear profitable when funded at artificially low interest rates are not in fact the best use of those resources.
Eventually, the economic boom created by the Fed's actions is found to be unsustainable, and the bust ensues as this malinvested capital manifests itself in a surplus of capital goods, inventory overhangs, etc. Until these misdirected resources are put to a more productive use—the uses the free market actually desires—the economy stagnates.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
The great contribution of the Austrian school of economics to economic theory was in its description of this business cycle: the process of booms and busts, and their origins in monetary intervention by the government in cooperation with the banking system. Yet policy makers at the Federal Reserve still fail to understand the causes of our most recent financial crisis. So they find themselves unable to come up with an adequate solution.
In many respects the governors of the Federal Reserve System and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee are like all other high-ranking powerful officials. Because they make decisions that profoundly affect the workings of the economy and because they have hundreds of bright economists working for them doing research and collecting data, they buy into the pretense of knowledge—the illusion that because they have all these resources at their fingertips they therefore have the ability to guide the economy as they see fit.
Nothing could be further from the truth. No attitude could be more destructive. What the Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek victoriously asserted in the socialist calculation debate of the 1920s and 1930s—the notion that the marketplace, where people freely decide what they need and want to pay for, is the only effective way to allocate resources—may be obvious to many ordinary Americans. But it has not influenced government leaders today, who do not seem to see the importance of prices to the functioning of a market economy.
The manner of thinking of the Federal Reserve now is no different than that of the former Soviet Union, which employed hundreds of thousands of people to perform research and provide calculations in an attempt to mimic the price system of the West's (relatively) free markets. Despite the obvious lesson to be drawn from the Soviet collapse, the U.S. still has not fully absorbed it.
The Fed fails to grasp that an interest rate is a price—the price of time—and that attempting to manipulate that price is as destructive as any other government price control. It fails to see that the price of housing was artificially inflated through the Fed's monetary pumping during the early 2000s, and that the only way to restore soundness to the housing sector is to allow prices to return to sustainable market levels. Instead, the Fed's actions have had one aim—to keep prices elevated at bubble levels—thus ensuring that bad debt remains on the books and failing firms remain in business, albatrosses around the market's neck.
The Fed's quantitative easing programs increased the national debt by trillions of dollars. The debt is now so large that if the central bank begins to move away from its zero interest-rate policy, the rise in interest rates will result in the U.S. government having to pay hundreds of billions of dollars in additional interest on the national debt each year. Thus there is significant political pressure being placed on the Fed to keep interest rates low. The Fed has painted itself so far into a corner now that even if it wanted to raise interest rates, as a practical matter it might not be able to do so. But it will do something, we know, because the pressure to "just do something" often outweighs all other considerations.
What exactly the Fed will do is anyone's guess, and it is no surprise that markets continue to founder as anticipation mounts. If the Fed would stop intervening and distorting the market, and would allow the functioning of a truly free market that deals with profit and loss, our economy could recover. The continued existence of an organization that can create trillions of dollars out of thin air to purchase financial assets and prop up a fundamentally insolvent banking system is a black mark on an economy that professes to be free.
Mr. Paul, a congressman from Texas, is seeking the Republican presidential nomination.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
#OccupyWallStreet...Scary
Monday, September 19, 2011
Arrrrr! Talk like a pirate -- or prepare to be boarded - Dave Barry - MiamiHerald.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
collectSPACE - news - "Declassified spysat exhibit reveals rare look at Cold War space program"
Friday, September 16, 2011
Euro Zone Crisis: Europe's Impossible Choice: The Greek Exit Paradox - CNBC
During the 1980s and 1990s, Greece benefitted from joining the European community and taking transfer funds from Brussels to develop its economy. In the early part of the 2000s, having joined the euro, they gained a further advantage and inflow of relatively cheap funds.
"Now that era is over, it's doubtful even without any debt they could maintain that position. With the government debt load they have, it's flat out impossible," Zeihan said. "The only way that they could continue to remain in the euro zone is if the Germans directly or indirectly subsidize them forever."
"If the Germans do that, they will have to do it for Portugal and for Spain and for Ireland and for Italy, and let's be perfectly honest here, for France. Unless the Germans are willing to come to that conclusion, Greece has got to go," he added.
"If you want the euro zone to survive, you have to find a way to force the vast majority, if not all, the states that are participating in it, to be fiscally responsible according to German rules," Zeihan said. "That is something that is physically impossible for Greece to do. If you take steps to keep Greece in the union, you actively encourage everyone else to act like Greece."
Friday, September 2, 2011
Its Production, Stupid.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Felonious Munk Presents: Stop It B! OBAMA PAY YOUR &*%$#% BILLS - YouTube
"How do you owe CHINA!?! How can I tell my daughter with a straight face Capitalism is a better system than Communism if we are borrowing all of our fuckin' money from the biggest Communist country on the fuckin' planet?"
Pick me. I know the answer. The Chinese have been moving toward the free market since the late 70's. George and Barry have taken us in the other direction.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Democrat questions TSA over Israeli-style ‘chat downs’ | The Raw Story
Democrat questions TSA over Israeli-style ‘chat downs’ | The Raw Story
Sunday, August 14, 2011
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly eBook: Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff: Kindle Store
Just starting to read this book. Anyone read it? Seems very data driven (not a narrative). I like it so far. A quick sample:
History shows, "A government does not have to worry too much about a debt crisis if it consistently runs fiscal surpluses, maintains relatively low debt levels, mostly borrows at longer-term maturities (say ten years or more), and does not have too many hidden off-balance sheet guarantees. In contrast, a government runs large deficits year after year, concentrating its borrowing at shorter-term maturities (of say one year or less), it becomes vulnerable , perhaps even at a debt level that should seem quite manageable."
The US government has chronic, large deficits. Almost all of the debt is at three years or less. And, we have HUGE off-balance sheet liabilities like Social Security, Medicaid, and Obamacare.
I'd say we are in deep shit.
Protests force Chinese factory to close - FT.com
As we move ever closer to totalitarianism and serfdom, the Chinese are showing progress in the other direction. Three cheers for the people in Dalian with the courage to stand up to their government when the consequences of dissent are so large.
Friday, August 12, 2011
The system works.
Fantastic! Really. Reagan-style optimism.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Let's Recap: How did we get into this mess? Where does it end?
Fantastic. Greenspan says we're OK because we can print money. In my recollection, Greenspan and this kind of thinking is the cause of the crisis. It IS the problem. Shortly After Osama hit the World Trade Centers Greenspan and Bush pumped liquidity into the system by pushing interest rates to historic lows. (Combine that with Clinton and Barney Frank forcing banks to loan money for houses to anyone with a pulse...) Greenspan was the guy that moved the Fed from fighting inflation to fighting recession. Now we have the Fed in the business of fighting stock market swings.
Where does it end? Oh, Hayek already told us how it ends--he watched the rise of the National Socialist (Nazi) Party in Germany. See, The Road to Serfdom by Hayek. Socialism is a one-way street that ends in Totalitarianism and brutal repression and the murder of millions. Obama is a fool. Dangerous, but a fool. He is, however, preparing the way for a madman like Hitler.
Monday, August 8, 2011
The Italian Job - WSJ.com
The news headlines today should have been: US Gov't borrowing costs don't change (today) despite the change in ratings by S&P. Subhead: Who would have thought that S&P added no information to the market?
So, the nominal reason for this post was to congratulate the Italians for the size of the scam they have pulled off on the Germans. Certainly the Spanish, Portugese, Irish, and Greeks did an amazing job but the Italians have pulled of a heist of historic proportions.
The really amazing part is that we have a Tea Party problem and not a borrowing problem!?!
Friday, August 5, 2011
The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy - Seeking Alpha
Great series of articles on energy.
Favorite quote:
"...after 30 years and $30 billion in subsidies, wind now meets 7/10 of 1% of US energy needs (about the same as when farmers used windmills 150 years ago) and solar is 12/100 of 1%. "
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Three Cheers for a divided government...BBC News - FAA shutdown: Obama urges Congress to settle latest row
BBC News - FAA shutdown: Obama urges Congress to settle latest row
Can't continue to wash each other's shirts
www.retailsystemsresearch.com/_document/summary/1321#fullsite
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Employers BANNED from background checks? Striking the Balance Between Workplace Fairness and Workplace Safety
Striking the Balance Between Workplace Fairness and Workplace Safety
Monday, August 1, 2011
Fair versus Free
"When “fairness” replaces “freedom,” all our liberties are in danger." Check the Constitution. It does not protect fairness.
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Crisis?
On a slightly different topic, I am again brought back to one of the biggest issues with democracy: the tyranny of the majority. This time I am reminded of the problem by a Christian friend of mine was explaining to me how charity from the people via government was justified. I am certainly in favor of charity and do my best to help those in need. I do not, however, need the government to direct my charity or to be a middle man (and take a cut) of my charity. Despite my friend's strong belief in- and adherence to- the 10 Commandments, he doesn't see how it is THEFT when the majority forces the minority to give money to a "worthy" cause against the minority's will.
Why does it surprise anyone when the recipients of the charity vote more charity for themselves? This is the open feedback loop that is going to kill our great experiment. We are indeed on the Road to Serfdom.
Cafe Hayek Quote of the day
"The crossroads of trade are the meeting place of ideas, the attrition ground of rival customs and beliefs; diversities beget conflict, comparison, thought; superstitions cancel one another and reason begins."
Opponents of free trade literally are unreasonable. No matter how “progressive” they fancy themselves to be – a fancy fueled by the asinine yet apparently attractive notion that society progresses the more individuals’ wills and actions are bent (with force, if necessary) to conform to the will of the state – opponents of free trade are peddlers of backwoods stupidity grounded as firmly in ignorance and inability to reason as it is in atavistic fears and superstitions still lingering from our tribal past.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Tea Party = Populists?!? America’s debt ceiling face-off: The audacity of hopelessness - FT.com
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP
Second, comparing government debt and fiscal deficits to a percentage of the GDP lulls the reader or listener into thinking it is OK to maintain that same percentage. In other words, the GDP grows and the debt grows. No problem. In reality, it is a problem the debt never decreases as a percentage of GDP.
I for one am glad the politicians have borrowing and debt and deficits at the top of the agenda. What could be better?
Monday, July 25, 2011
Mayor pushing to ban plastic bags at Austin stores
Beautiful. We use the plastic bags to put dirty diapers into. Now I guess our choice is to buy bags or to simply drop the diapers off at city hall.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Napolitano: One-party System
Napolitano: High Court Key to Obamacare Survival
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Party Politics: How Conservatism Lost Touch with Reality - TIME
Wow. This is so wrong on so many points it is hard to know where to start.
Time says: "Taxes — federal and state combined — as a percentage of GDP are at their lowest level since 1950. The U.S. is among the lowest taxed of the big industrial economies. "
Source?!?
The Cato Institute says ONLY Brazil, Uzbekistan, Chad, and Argentina have higher corporate tax rates.
The Heritage Foundation says "U.S. tax rates are burdensome. The top income and corporate tax rates are 35 percent. Other taxes include an estate tax and excise taxes. Additional income, sales, and property taxes are assessed at the state and local levels. In the most recent year, overall tax revenue as a percentage of GDP was 26.9 percent." Other interesting scores tax revenue as a percentage of GDP? China=17%. India 17.7%.
Time says, "Meanwhile, across the globe, the world's fastest-growing economy, China, has managed to use government involvement to create growth and jobs for three decades"
Since when does correlation prove cause? What would China's growth rate have been if the government hadn't been involved? Much higher I suspect.
Monday, January 24, 2011
The PJ Tatler » The real political parties
“Political tags–such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth–are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire. The former are idealists acting from highest motives for the greatest good of the greatest number. The latter are surly curmudgeons, suspicious and lacking in altruism. But they are more comfortable neighbors than the other sort.”
– Robert A. Heinlein
“Men by their constitutions are naturally divided into two parties: 1. Those who fear and distrust the people, and wish to draw all powers from them into the hands of the higher classes. 2. Those who identify themselves with the people, have confidence in them, cherish and consider them as the most honest and safe, although not the most wise depositary of the public interests. In every country these two parties exist, and in every one where they are free to think, speak, and write, they will declare themselves. Call them, therefore, Liberals and Serviles, Jacobins and Ultras, Whigs and Tories, Republicans and Federalists, Aristocrats and Democrats, or by whatever name you please, they are the same parties still and pursue the same object. The last one of Aristocrats and Democrats is the true one expressing the essence of all.”
– Thomas Jefferson (Letter to Henry Lee, 1824)
I’m making no positive assertion concerning the efficacy of a field of study as either explanatory or predictive. I don’t have to prove anything.
The “climate scientists,” on the other hand, are claiming that their “science” is sufficiently predictive that humanity should invest way-of-life-threatening resources in averting their predictions. The ability to predict future events requires understanding of both past and current events; proof of the ability to predict future events requires demonstration of an ability to predict, based on data as of a specified time in the past, consequent events that in fact coincide with the known consequent events.
Climate “science” meets none of these requirements. It cannot explain known historical events even of the recent past–like the MWP and the LIA–let alone the more profound events of the distant past such as the Younger Dryas. Even less can it can it predict in models the MWP or the LIA based on data from prior to those events.
Astrology and chicken entrails I said, and astrology and chicken entrails I meant. Until climate “science” can model known historical events, it’s useless as a predictor of future events, and it would be profoundly foolish for humanity to waste resources on chicken-entrail predictions.