alternative energy? do the math

Dear Mr. L (aka Chicken Little)
The oil economy has a long life left in it. It has always been characterized by too little production capacity or two little refining&distribution. As it happens we now have both (as a result of both GREENs causing a crisis by stopping refineries being built and local exloration and production capacity being hampered by the same GREENs and second, no doubt our boneheaded president has helped by pushing the dollar lower and engaging in an unwinnable war). so, we have a bubble. I have now moved my small bet ($40K that was $25k when I bet it on Cummings as a play on highrer oil prices to airline stocks as a play on lower prices).

I agree oil won't last forever. And, we should be bulding nuclear (corn won't do it because it takes a gallon of oil to make a gallon of ethanol; wind won't ever do it --do the math; solar is VERY energy intensive+there is no more toxic industry than semiconductors). Nuclear is our only answer. Asside from COAL which i think is great becaseu we have lot.

Hydrogen, battrery, or hybrid cars simply move the problem from one energy prodcution source to another.


On Mon, Jun 16, 2008 at 10:32 AM,
Mr. L wrote:

Drop back from 200? or drop back from 130? The Fareed Zacharia article in Newsweek would argue neither. Now before you tell me not to listen to left wing rag like Newsweek, my right leaning friend, I generally do not. Check out the issue if you can. It has gas pumps on the cover spelling out "Recession". The article is co-written with Dave Gross and a dozen or so other economists, none of whom hold much faith in Paulson's claim that the second half of of the year will make up for the first. Really, at this point, Paulson seems more and more like an administration hack. A buffoon selling bad data for political goodwill.

You are betting the price of oil will retreat in the fall? By $5? Can Tom make money on price aberations? All the pressure is in the other direction as demand has not budged and the majors are pumping at capacity. There are no elephants left as matt damon's character says in the brilliant but underappresiated "Syriana." This is the final push and there is nothing pushing back.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, June 15, 2008 4:36 PM
Subject: Re: can't reach you from my work address
Indeed. $200 is not out of the question. But, I do think after the summer we see it drop back quite a bit--I'm betting that way in the market.
On Mon, Jun 16, 2008 at 1:07 AM, Mr L wrote:
Fuck OPEC indeed. Way beyond the powere base Kissinger imagined when he created the petrodollar.
No matter what we do to increase supply, whether asking SA to pump more or drilling at home, we burn 25 million barrels a day and now have some new world competition for what's left. You have to be prepared to ask yourself the tough question,...is $200 the new $60?
----- Original Message -----

Sent: Saturday, June 14, 2008 8:48 PM
Subject: Re: can't reach you from my work address
On Sun, Jun 15, 2008 at 10:39 AM, Mr. L. wrote:
Wow, great rant.

I totally agree, we brought this on ourselves. It is mindless that we haven't built a refinery in 30 years, but in balance it is at least a bit disinguous to deny some complicity by the bigs who, had they desired to build refineries here, were certainly among the most sophisticated and well funded lobbying industries to grace the houses of Congress during that same 30 years, could have made some progress towards that end. If that is what they had wanted, would simple regulations for polution and land use have stopped them? These are the days they hoped would come.

YOU GOT THIS RIGHT. OF COURSE, IF THEY HAD WANTED IT THEY WOULD HAVE GOTTEN IT. BUT, AS A COUNTER, DON'T YOU THINK TEXAS PACIFIC GROUP WOULD LIKE TO BUILD COAL PLANTS BUT WAS STOPPED?

Remember also that American refinery shortage doesn't affect the world price of petroleum. Our world competitors for this dwindling and finite resource are at least mostly responsible right? Either way, the cheap dollar is more responsible than the shortage of American refineries. The only mainstream refinery derivative we are "frac"-tionally short on as a result is diesel, which, do you imagine they really wish they could sell for less?

AGREE. BUT, DIESEL IS A CASE WHERE REGULATION (NEW CLEAN STANDARDS AND CALIFORNIA REGULATIONS DIFFERENT THAN OTHER STATES) HAS FRACTURED OR FRAGMENTED THE SUPPLY CHAIN RESULTING IN LESS SUPPLY OF A GIVEN STANDARD DIESEL.

But yes, old friend, we did this to ourselves. Arrogance really. Even as recently as 4 years ago, Ted Kennedy led the charge to defeat a proposed wind farm off the coast of his Connecticut beach home. We definitely are facing the California style brown outs and worse over the next two decades. Response after crisis is always more expensive, and less well planned. We will make a real mess of that as well. This is not a crisis we can pump our way out of. If we had started drilling ANWAR ten years ago when it was first put on hold, we'd be conserving it by now too.


THE TROUBLE WITH OUR NATURAL RESOURCES IS THAT UNLIKE THE OPEC STATES 20 YEARS AGO OUR GOVT DOESN'T CHARGE DRILLERS AND MINERS BY THE UNIT EXTRACTED. WE SHOULD START THIS FOR ANWAR AND USE THE MONEY TO BUILD NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS. FUCK OPEC.

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